Alarm Holdings Valuation

ALRM Stock  USD 48.89  1.41  2.97%   
At this time, the firm appears to be undervalued. Alarm Holdings shows a prevailing Real Value of $53.02 per share. The current price of the firm is $48.89. Our model approximates the value of Alarm Holdings from analyzing the firm fundamentals such as return on equity of 0.16, and Profit Margin of 0.13 % as well as examining its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy. Key fundamental drivers impacting Alarm Holdings' valuation include:
Price Book
2.8854
Enterprise Value
2.4 B
Enterprise Value Ebitda
10.669
Price Sales
2.3615
Forward PE
26.2467
Undervalued
Today
48.89
Please note that Alarm Holdings' price fluctuation is very steady at this time. Calculation of the real value of Alarm Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Alarm Holdings' time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
The fair value of the Alarm stock is determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of Alarm Holdings. Since Alarm Holdings is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Alarm Stock. However, Alarm Holdings' intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  48.89 Real  53.02 Target  58.0 Hype  47.35 Naive  49.41
The intrinsic value of Alarm Holdings' stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, news, and other external factors that may influence Alarm Holdings' stock price. It is important to note that the real value of any stock may change over time based on changes in the company's performance.
53.02
Real Value
54.70
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Alarm Holdings helps investors to forecast how Alarm stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Alarm Holdings more accurately as focusing exclusively on Alarm Holdings' fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Earnings
Estimates
LowProjectedHigh
0.620.670.69
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
45.6747.3549.03
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
47.7349.4151.09
Details
9 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
52.7858.0064.38
Details
Traditionally, analysts and sophisticated investors use multiple methods for valuing a cash-flow-generating entity or its stock. For example, some money managers use Alarm Holdings' intrinsic value based on its ongoing forecasts of Alarm Holdings' financial statements. In contrast, other private, professional wealth advisors use a multiplier approach by looking to relative value analysis against Alarm Holdings' closest peers.

Alarm Holdings Cash

1.01 Billion

Alarm Revenue by Product

Alarm Holdings Total Value Analysis

Alarm Holdings is presently projected to have valuation of 2.39 B with market capitalization of 2.39 B, debt of 1.13 B, and cash on hands of 643.38 M. Please note that valuation may be misleading and is a subject to auditing or accounting errors. We encourage investors to vigilantly validate all of the Alarm Holdings fundamentals before making equity appraisal based on enterprise value of the company
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
2.39 B
2.39 B
1.13 B
643.38 M

Alarm Holdings Investor Information

About 99.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Alarm Holdings was presently reported as 17.09. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.54. Alarm Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Based on the key indicators related to Alarm Holdings' liquidity, profitability, solvency, and operating efficiency, Alarm Holdings may be sliding down financialy. It has an above-average chance of going through some form of financial crunch next quarter.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Operating Profit Margin0.110.1343
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Total Cash From Operating Activities161 M153.3 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile
Operating Income142.6 M135.8 M
Sufficiently Up
Slightly volatile

Alarm Holdings Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Alarm Holdings has an asset utilization ratio of 46.66 percent. This suggests that the Company is making $0.47 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Alarm Holdings is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes

Alarm Holdings Profitability Analysis

Based on Alarm Holdings' profitability indicators, Alarm Holdings may not be well positioned to generate adequate gross income at the present time. It has a very high chance of underperforming in April. Profitability indicators assess Alarm Holdings' ability to earn profits and add value for shareholders.
 
Net Income  
First Reported
2013-03-31
Previous Quarter
35.3 M
Current Value
34.7 M
Quarterly Volatility
11.5 M
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
As of the 3rd of March 2026, Gross Profit is likely to drop to about 331.2 M. In addition to that, Pretax Profit Margin is likely to drop to 0.12
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Gross Profit Margin0.490.631
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Net Profit Margin0.07010.1311
Way Down
Very volatile
Operating Profit Margin0.110.1343
Significantly Down
Slightly volatile
Pretax Profit Margin0.120.1674
Way Down
Slightly volatile
Return On Assets0.07410.0612
Fairly Up
Slightly volatile
Return On Equity0.0960.1563
Way Down
Very volatile
For Alarm Holdings profitability analysis, we use financial ratios and fundamental drivers that measure the ability of Alarm Holdings to generate income relative to revenue, assets, operating costs, and current equity. These fundamental indicators attest to how well Alarm Holdings utilizes its assets to generate profit and value for its shareholders. The profitability module also shows relationships between Alarm Holdings's most relevant fundamental drivers. It provides multiple suggestions of what could affect the performance of Alarm Holdings over time as well as its relative position and ranking within its peers.

Alarm Holdings Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

The next projected EPS of Alarm Holdings is estimated to be 0.6676 with future projections ranging from a low of 0.616 to a high of 0.69. Alarm Holdings' most recent 12-month trailing earnings per share (EPS TTM) is at 2.36. Please be aware that the consensus of earnings estimates for Alarm Holdings is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
Alarm Holdings is projected to generate 0.6676 in earnings per share on the 30th of June 2026. Alarm Holdings earnings estimates show analyst consensus about projected Alarm Holdings EPS (Earning Per Share). It derives the highest and the lowest estimates based on Alarm Holdings' historical volatility. Many public companies, such as Alarm Holdings, manage the perception of their earnings on a regular basis to make sure that analyst estimates are accurate. Future earnings calculations are also an essential input when attempting to value a firm.

Alarm Holdings Earnings Estimation Breakdown

The calculation of Alarm Holdings' earning per share is based on the data from the past 12 consecutive months, used for reporting the company's financial figures. The next projected EPS of Alarm Holdings is estimated to be 0.6676 with the future projection ranging from a low of 0.616 to a high of 0.69. Please be aware that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for Alarm Holdings is based on EPS before non-recurring items and includes expenses related to employee stock options.
Last Reported EPS
0.0
0.62
Lowest
Expected EPS
0.6676
0.69
Highest

Alarm Holdings Earnings Projection Consensus

Suppose the current estimates of Alarm Holdings' value are higher than the current market price of the Alarm Holdings stock. In this case, investors may conclude that Alarm Holdings is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and Alarm Holdings' stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyLast Reported EPSEstimated EPS for 30th of June 2026Current EPS (TTM)
781.0%
0.0
0.6676
2.36

Alarm Holdings Ownership Allocation

Alarm Holdings holds a total of 49.88 Million outstanding shares. The majority of Alarm Holdings outstanding shares are owned by other corporate entities. These outside corporations are usually referred to as non-private investors looking to acquire positions in Alarm Holdings to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, institutional investors are subject to a different set of regulations than regular investors in Alarm Holdings. Please pay attention to any change in the institutional holdings of Alarm Holdings as this could imply that something significant has changed or is about to change at the company. Also note that nearly one million nine hundred sixty-five thousand two hundred fifty-nine invesors are currently shorting Alarm Holdings expressing very little confidence in its future performance.

Alarm Holdings Profitability Analysis

The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.01 B. Net Income was 131.63 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 668.89 M.

About Alarm Holdings Valuation

We use absolute and relative valuation methodologies to arrive at the intrinsic value of Alarm Holdings. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Alarm Holdings based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Alarm Holdings's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and their related drivers, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Alarm Holdings's intrinsic value. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Alarm Holdings. We calculate exposure to Alarm Holdings's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of Alarm Holdings's related companies.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Gross Profit638.1 M331.2 M
Pretax Profit Margin 0.17  0.12 
Operating Profit Margin 0.13  0.11 
Net Profit Margin 0.13  0.07 
Gross Profit Margin 0.63  0.49 

Alarm Holdings Growth Indicators

Investing in growth stocks can be very risky. If the company such as Alarm Holdings does not do well, investors take a loss on the stock when it is time to sell. Also, because growth stocks typically do not pay dividends, the only opportunity an investor has to make money on their investment is when they eventually sell their shares.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding58.9 M
Quarterly Earnings Growth Y O Y0.179
Forward Price Earnings26.2467

Alarm Holdings Current Valuation Indicators

Alarm Holdings' valuation analysis is a process of estimating the intrinsic value of all assets and outstanding equities. There are different methodologies and models we use to develop the final Alarm Holdings' valuation. The techniques such as discounted cash flow and fundamental indicators such as book value per share or market capitalization are well known and widely used across most financial advisers and money managers.
Valuations are an essential part of business, for companies themselves, but also for investors. For companies, such as Alarm Holdings, valuations can help measure their progress and success and can help them track their performance in the market compared to others. In addition, investors can use Alarm Holdings' valuations to help determine the worth of potential investments. They can do this by using data and information made public by a company. Regardless of who the valuation is for, it essentially describes Alarm Holdings' worth.
When determining whether Alarm Holdings is a strong investment it is important to analyze Alarm Holdings' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Alarm Holdings' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Alarm Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Alarm Holdings. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in real.
To learn how to invest in Alarm Stock, please use our How to Invest in Alarm Holdings guide.
You can also try the Idea Optimizer module to use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio .
Will Application Software sector continue expanding? Could Alarm diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Alarm Holdings. If investors know Alarm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Alarm Holdings data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.179
Earnings Share
2.36
Revenue Per Share
20.307
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.08
Return On Assets
0.0412
Understanding Alarm Holdings requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Alarm's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value - what Alarm Holdings' is actually worth based on fundamentals - guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Alarm Holdings' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Alarm Holdings' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Alarm Holdings represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Alarm Holdings' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.